The “big night” for Hollywood is finally here. And whether you love the Oscar’s or hate them, the allure of Hollywood’s greatest honoring their finest is almost too much to pass up. I’m going to take my swing at the nominations and predict who will win. Just remember to send me some money after I help you win the Oscar pool tonight.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
The nominees?
- Amour
- Django Unchained
- Flight
- Moonrise Kingdom
- Zero Dark Thirty
The Breakdown?
Tarantino won the award at the Golden Globes, but his speech wasn’t the traditional thanks that the Academy expected. And since the last votes for the Oscar’s are taken after the Golden Globes many times these speeches can predict the winner. Mark Boal won the award for his last effort The Hurt Locker, but is Zero Dark Thirty too similar and was the torture scandal too much bad publicity? Moonrise Kingdom is another fan favorite but it is much too quirky for the Academy. Amour won praise for its writing, but is too foreign to win one of the main categories. Why was Flight even nominated?
The Winner?
Django Unchained. Between Django Unchained and Lincoln Hollywood was abuzz with the topic of slavery and the South this year. Tarantino chose an enjoyable alternate view for his story, and even though in my opinion the character development was questionable, the story of a freed black getting revenge on Southerners is more than enough to salivate the liberal, white-guilt ridden Academy populous.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
The Nominees?
- Argo
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- Silver Linings Playbook
The Breakdown?
Life of Pi had been called an unfilmable novel. The fact that it was filmed and was very enjoyable to watch is a testament to the writer David Magee. Silver Linings Playbook was the best written romantic comedy I have ever seen, David O. Russel could win just for the feat alone. Lincoln is well written Oscar bait, that was the favorite going into the season. Argo is an amazing and captivating film, and it’s running off the momentum of hate towards the fact that Ben Affleck got snubbed. Beasts of the Southern Wild is the underdog indie film that has no chance of winning but the fact it was nominated is enough.
The Winner?
Argo and it’s writer Chris Terrio is going to take the statue here. The race is truly between Argo, Lincoln, and Silver Linings Playbook. Argo is running off huge momentum from winning the best film from the Writers Guild of America, and is a worthy recipient.
Visual Effects
The Nominees?
- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
- Life of Pi
- The Avenger’s
- Prometheus
- Snow White and the Huntsman
The Breakdown?
The category of summer blockbusters. The Hobbit not only had terrible special effects, but the use of CGI was a slap in the face to the original trilogy. Life of Pi had the best effects I had ever seen, I thought Richard Parker was a real tiger until my friend informed me he was CGI. The Avenger’s was a flash bang of well done CGI. Prometheus was much more in the vain of traditional visual effects and it payed of for the style of the film. Snow White and the Huntsman had the visual effects of a team of talented kids messing with CGI software.
The Winner?
No discussion necessary this award is going to the team behind Life of Pi. And if it doesn’t it may be the biggest upset of the evening. And even then only The Avengers has a slight chance of upsetting. Life of Pi all the way.
Sound Editing
The Nominees?
- Argo
- Django Unchained
- Life of Pi
- Skyfall
- Zero Dark Thirty
The Breakdown?
The more technical categories are the hardest to predict. Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty find their best chances here, being action based films really help them out a lot. But Django Unchained, Argo, and Life of Pi also have complex soundscapes as well.
The Winner?
Life of Pi emerges from the pack as a favorite due to not only the complex soundscapes of the action packed sequences, but the use of silence as well.
Sound Mixing
The Nominees?
- Argo
- Les Misérables
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- Skyfall
The Breakdown?
Again technical categories are tough to call. Les Misérables has the unique quality that all sining was captured live, that makes it a huge favorite. Skyfall is playing the action film card again, you try capturing and mixing the sounds of what a train crashing in the London underground is. The rest of the films can almost be considered filler in the contest to the two aforementioned films.
The Winner?
Les Misérables is going to win. It was technically a well done film, and the advertising of the capture of live singing makes it too much of a public sweetheart to lose.
Music (Original Song)
The Nominees?
- “Before My Time” Chasing Ice
- “Everyone Needs A Best Friend” TED
- “Pi’s Lullaby” Life of Pi
- “Skyfall” Skyfall
- “Suddenly” Les Misérables
The Breakdown?
Before everyone gets in a tizzy that Les Misérables was snubbed from having every single nominee in this category, it is the best original song. Sorry “I Dreamed a Dream”, but you don’t qualify for the category. Chasing Ice is a documentary nominated for best original song, plus Scarlett Johansson sang on the beautiful, but it won’t win. “Suddenly” was a strange, and controversial addition to Les Mis, and the song form Life of Pi suffers from the fact that the soundtrack blended together as one huge piece. This is a race between Skyfall and TED.
The Winner?
TED follows the tradition of comedy songs being contenders for the song category, but it stands no chance against the duo of Adele and James Bond, who will surely win.
Music (Original Score)
The Nominees?
- Anna Karenina
- Argo
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- Skyfall
The Breakdown?
Life of Pi had a beautiful, minimalist score that grew and dwindled perfectly with the screen. Lincoln is a John Williams score, so you probably heard all the variations it has to offer but still secretly love it. Argo had music? I don’t even remember it. Same with Skyfall, the only music I remember is Adele. I haven’t seen Anna Karenina but I’m sure it had a romantic era orchestrated soundtrack.
The Winner?
Life of Pi should win, and if it doesn’t John Williams will win again for his work on Lincoln.
Foreign Language Film
The Nominees?
- Amour Austria
- Kon-Tiki Norway
- No Chile
- A Royal Affair Denmark
- War Witch Canada
The Breakdown
I actually can’t comment on any of these films since I’ve seen none of them. The foreign film category is always under attack for making it seem like foreign films are lesser than American made ones. If you ever get a chance, watch any and all of these films – most likely it will be worth it.
The Winner?
Michale Haneke and Austria have this award in the bag. Heck the man is nominated for best director, if that’s not a sign to come, what is?
Film Editing
The Nominees
- Argo
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Zero Dark Thirty
The Breakdown
Life of Pi had some very strange editing choices that harkened back to the style used in the 50′s. It was strange and kinda distanciating from the rest of the film experience. Silver Linings Playbook and Lincoln both had traditional editing styles that were perfectly invisible but in no way superb or inventive. Argo had sequences of cross cutting between events that lasted about only ten minutes of runtime but felt like thirty minutes of watch time, that’s good editing. Zero Dark Thirty had the same effect, but I did not see it so I cannot comment on the experience.
The Winner?
The big winner of the night in editing is going to be William Goldenberg, he was nominated twice for Argo and Zero Dark Thirty, the two favorite films to win. Expect the win to come from the first, not the latter.
Feature Documentary
The Nominees?
- 5 Broken Cameras
- The Gatekeepers
- How to Survive the Plague
- The Invisible War
- Searching For Sugarman
The Breakdown?
Searching For Sugarman had the widest release of all of the films. The local art cinema in my college town had previews for it running before every single showing. The rest of the films are easily watchable either on Netflix, Hulu, or other internet sites. Also adding to the mix is that this is the first year that all members of the Academy were sent screeners of the documentary films and can now vote on them. Maybe the socially conscious minds of the Academy voters will chose a more “important and pressing” film to win.
The Winner?
Searching for Sugarman is the go to favorite for every website making predictions. But don’t be surprised if one of the more issue based films win.
Best Animated Film
The Nominees?
- Brave
- Frankenweenie
- ParaNorman
- The Pirates! Band of Misfits
- Wreck-it Ralph
The Breakdown?
This is a jam packed category full of critically and popularly successful films. It also is signally a switch in animation, there is not a single traditionally hand drawn film – instead we have three stop-motion films and two computer graphic films. Still the three big favorites are all Disney films with the other two playing underdogs.
The Winner?
ParaNorman was in my opinion the best, but sadly most likely won’t win. This is a toss-up between Brave and Wreck-it Ralph to win.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees?
- Hitchcock
- The Hobbit
- Les Misérables
The Breakdown?
Hitchcock got the nod for making Anthony Hopkins look like the significantly more rotund Alfred Hitchcock. The Hobbit is coming from the tradition of Lord of the Rings films winning for makeup, but the offensive use of CGI to create the orcs and goblins is going to be the death of the film. Les Misérables had a haircut happen live on screen.
The Winner?
Les Misérables has this almost in the bag. If The Hobbit was to win it would be a small scale upset.
Best Production Design
The Nominees?
- Anna Karenina
- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
- Les Misérables
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
The Breakdown?
This is a race between CGI versus classical mise-en-scen. Lincoln is definitely the underdog in the catgory as it faces strong resistance from the classic period pieces of Anna Karenina and Les Misérables. Life of Pi created a beautiful world, and it was almost all done in a computer, same with The Hobbit.
The Winner?
Life of Pi had beautiful visuals on screen. The carnivorous island and florescent water are the obvious stand-out scenes, and probably why it will win this category.
Costume Design
The Nominees?
- Anna Karenina
- Les Misérables
- Mirro Mirror
- Snow White and the Huntsman
The Breakdown?
The two Snow White inspired films are here, for filler. A slight nod saying “yes, good job making the same story look two different ways”. The real competition is between the historical dramas. Lincoln suffers from the fact that it is mainly men on screen, and they are just wearing 19 century suits, which are basically 21 century suits, but with tails. Les Misérables has beautiful french costumes versus the beautiful English costumes of Anna Karenina
The Winner?
Anna Karenina and it’s majestic courtly dresses will take home the statue. The academy voters of this category really love classic victorian dresses.
Cinematography
The Nominees?
- Anna Karenina
- Django Uncahined
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- Skyfall
The Breakdown?
If Skyfall wanted to win an award to show that this version of James Bond wasn’t a joke, this is the award. The shots in the thriller were inventive, creative, and beautiful. Lincoln went for the more subdued approach of cinematography. Life of Pi, went with the look at all the beautiful things we can create in a computer approach. Django Unchained had the most beautiful cinematography in the first half of it’s film, but slowly slipped into over saturated reds and ugliness as it progressed. I’ve never seen Anna Karenina but can only guess that it is the same, ugly grays and dusty sunlight that all Victorian pieces are.
The Winner?
Life of Pi will win because of the sheer beauty and brilliance of the images on screen. If only Django Unchained had continued with low-key, wide, expansive shots of the west they would be the winners.
Directing
The Nominees?
- Michael Haneke Amour
- Benh Zeitlin Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Ang Lee Life of Pi
- Steven Spielberg Lincoln
- David O. Russel Silver Linings Playbook
The Breakdown?
Ben Affleck.
The Winner?
Either Steven Spielberg or Ang Lee. But it should be Ben Affleck.
Actor in a Leading Role
The Nominees?
- Bradley Cooper Silver Linings Playbook
- Daniel Day-Lewis Lincoln
- Hugh Jackman Les Misérables
- Joaquin Phoenix The Master
- Denzel Washington Flight
The Breakdown?
Why is Denzel even nominated for Flight? John Hawkes and his performance in The Sessions is much more deserving. Hugh Jackman did an amazing job in Les Misérables but perhaps used the whole singing live and mixing it up a bit too much, read as his version of Valjeans’s soliloquy was pretty horrendous. Joaquin Phoenix was amazing in The Master it’s a shame the film won’t win a single award. In any other year Bradley Cooper would have won best actor for his performance, unfortunately Daniel Day-Lewis is in contention as well.
The Winner?
Daniel Day-Lewis is the obvious winner. If he doesn’t win, it will be shocking, but Cooper is deserving as well.
Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees?
- Alan Arkin Argo
- Robert De Niro Silver Linings Playbook
- Philip Seymour Hoffman The Master
- Tommy Lee Jones Lincoln
- Christoph Waltz Django Uncahined
The Breakdown?
Christoph Waltz has been winning this in every single award show so far. Even though in my opinion his performance in the film was so obviously second to that of Leonardo DiCaprio. Tommy Lee Jones was a front runner early on in the season, everyone loved to praised his performance – but that has simmered down. Philip Seymour Hoffman was a force to be reckoned with while he was on screen during The Master. Alan Arkin was washed away with the rest of the ensemble during Argo. De Niro performance in Silver Linings Playbook was emotional and cocky and beyond well played.
The Winner?
De Niro deserves the award for his performance as a disgruntled and confused dad in Silver Linings Playbook but no one would be surprised if Tommy Lee Jones got the win as well.
Actress in a Supporting Role
The Nominees
- Amy Adams The Master
- Sally Field Lincoln
- Anne Hathaway Les Misérables
- Helen Hunt The Sessions
- Jackie Weaver Silver Linings Playbook
The Breakdown?
This category can be seen as the female equivalent to Best Actor this year. Anne Hathaway has all but won already. That’s not to discount the powerful performances by Amy Adams as the master of the master in The Master or Helen Hunt in The Sessions. But somehow giving Hunt an award when John Hawkes wasn’t even nominated is unfair. Sally Field and Jacki Weaver performances as wives to “powerful” men in their respected films were moving, but not what the Academy seems to want this year.
The Winner?
Anne Hathaway has this in the bag. No questions asked.
Actress in a Leading Role
The Nominees?
- Jessica Chastain Zero Dark Thirty
- Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook
- Emmanuella Riva Amour
- Quvenzhané Wallis Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Naomi Watts The Impossible
The Breakdown?
This category was a two pony race between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence until Emmanuella Riva came into the picture with the Academy’s love for Amour. It also has the distinction for having the oldest nominee and youngest nominee in the same category. There was a late ad push for Naomi Watts performance in The Impossible but not enough people saw the film for a win to be possible for her.
The Winner?
If the Academy goes for the sentimental vote they would give the award to Emmanuella Riva who will be turning 86 tonight, if the Academy goes for the public pleasing vote they would give it to Jennifer Lawrence who showed her versatility this year. My best guess is the latter with Jennifer Lawrence winning.
Best Picture
The Nominees?
- Amour
- Argo
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Django Unchained
- Les Misérables
- Life of Pi
- Lincoln
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Zero Dark Thirty
The Breakdown?
A film cannot win Best Picture if it’s director was not nominated for Best Director. That eliminates Django Unchained, Les Misérables, and Zero Dark Thirty. And Argo. Beasts of the Southern Wild is the underdog indie choice, being nominated is a win for it. Life of Pi and Lincoln are the classic Hollywood films, and both have a strong chance of winning. Amour is the foreign love child, that the Academy took under it’s wings as its own. Silver Linings Playbook is the rare romantic comedy getting a well deserved nod.
The Winner?
Argo. Regardless of whether Ben Affleck was nominated, this film will win. And Ben Affleck will be known as the best director of the 2012 year of film. The Academy screwed the pooch for not nominating him in the first place. Argo is the deserving, the underdog, and the right choice for Best Picture.